Click Away for Free Picks from the Nations Best   Ben Burns takes a look at how the number of shots on goal may or may not be important in hockey wagering. 2003 I've enjoyed enormous success with my hockey betting for a number of years now. As a result, I've come to expect a healthy profit from it each and every year. However, this season has begun poorly for me, as my NHL picks have struggled. When going through such a slump, I like to look back and analyze my losing plays too see what went wrong. Was my handicapping poor, or did the breaks just not fall my way? I'm not usually one to make excuses, but in the majority of my recent losses I feel it has been the latter. When handicapping hockey, I put a strong emphasis on trying to determine how hard a team will work. Generally speaking, when my team has more shots on goal then their opponent, then I feel that they have given me a fairly good work effort. Sifting back through my losers this season I have found that they almost all had one thing in common: my team lost despite outshooting their opponent. It got me thinking about how important shots on goal really are. I decided to take a look to see how often the team that had more shots on goal actually ended up winning the game. Before I began, I hypothesized that teams with more shots would be winning roughly 60% of their games, as they had done in previous years. The results were significantly lower. In October, the team with more shots had a 68-54 record (records do not include games that finished in a tie or games where teams had an equal number of shots). That’s a winning percentage of just under 56%. In November that number dipped below 53%, as teams that outshot their opponent finished the month with a 88-79 record. There are numerous times when shots on goal give an accurate indication of what happened in a game. On November 8th, the Lightning beat the Penguins 9-0, outshooting them 42-15 in the process. Two and a half weeks later the Red Wings outshot the Oilers 43-16, en route to an easy 7-1 win. There are also plenty of occasions where the final shots on goal stats don't mean squat. On October 30th the Kings outshot the Canucks 38-15, but Cloutier stood on his head and LA still lost 3-1. The Senators outshot the Canadiens 40-13 on November 15th but Jose Theodore stole the show and Ottawa fell 3-2. How about last night? Dallas outshoots Phoenix 40-18 but Sean Burke was unbelievable and Phoenix picked up a 2-1 win. I could give dozens of other examples, but you get the idea. The bottom line is that no matter how well any team plays, on any given night there is always a chance that they will run into a hot goalie that will beat them single-handedly. Some teams, like the Montreal Canadiens and Minnesota Wild, rely on their goalie to win the game for them almost every time they hit the ice. As of this writing, the Wild have been outshot in 13 straight games, yet are still finding ways to earn points. One of the teams that has given me problems this year has been the Washington Capitals. The Capitals have been especially unpredictable in terms of shots on goal. I had Washington in their game vs. Florida on November 22. The Caps outshot Florida 41-25 but still lost the game. Two nights later, facing the Red Wings, the Capitals were outshot 39-18, yet won the game 4-1. Go figure. Washington finally made the right move and got rid of their coach Cassidy. New coach Hanlon will look to bring some consistency. Of course, overall work ethic and shots on goal are not the only things to look at when handicapping hockey. There are numerous factors to look at, not the least of which is the starting goalies. However, there is no doubt that over the long-term, teams that hold a significant edge in shots on goal, do provide profitable wagering opportunities. If you find your teams coming up just short, despite the fact that they are dominating games, be patient. The breaks will even out for you in the end. Regarding my own slow start, I have started past seasons this way before. Each time I have been able to bounce back and finish up the year strong. I fully expect this year to be the same. Join Ben daily for his Guaranteed Selections and remember you must WIN or there is no charge!! Owned and operated by Alliance Sports Media  Any information furnished by this site is for information and entertainment only and is not to be used in violation of any federal, state, provincial or local laws - Privacy Policy Contact Servus - Picks2bet.com