Click Away for Free Picks from the Nations Best   Knowing Your NFL Key Numbers Bryan Leonard 2002 When Vegas sets the numbers every Sunday for the following weekend games, do you know if you should play at that moment or wait. Without having a strong set of Power Ratings and knowledge of margins of victory, you really don't know if you are gaining value by waiting. Because of the scoring in the NFL certain victory margins are more likely to occur than others. Therefore with field goals worth 3 and touchdowns worth basically 7, you have the basis of finding out the most probable scoring margins.  We can gain tremendous value if we know what the key numbers are and the frequency of their occurance. Over the past 10 years 2304 NFL regular season games were played. In that time frame, 368 or roughly 16% of the time the final margin was exactly 3 points. The next most frequent occurances were 7, 4, 10 and 6. The corresponding percentage of time those margins were reached were 8, 6, 6, and 5% respectively. If you are looking for the key numbers for totals, he also provides those statistics. The most frequent final totals over the last 10 years in the NFL were 37, 41, 30, 45 and 51. The corresponding percentages are 5,4,4,3 and 3% respectively.  As you can see it is very important to know what the key numbers are, and how often they come into play. If you only have one "out", then you are at the mercy of the key numbers. The more sets of lines you are able to obtain, the more often you can make the key numbers work in your favor. Owned and operated by Alliance Sports Media  Any information furnished by this site is for information and entertainment only and is not to be used in violation of any federal, state, provincial or local laws - Privacy Policy Contact Servus - Picks2bet.com