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Knowing Your NFL Key
Numbers Bryan
Leonard 2002
When Vegas sets the numbers every Sunday for the following
weekend games, do you know if you should play at that moment or
wait. Without having a strong set of Power Ratings and knowledge
of margins of victory, you really don't know if you are gaining
value by waiting. Because of the scoring in the NFL certain
victory margins are more likely to occur than others. Therefore
with field goals worth 3 and touchdowns worth basically 7, you
have the basis of finding out the most probable scoring margins.
We can gain tremendous value if we know what the key numbers are
and the frequency of their occurance. Over the past 10 years
2304 NFL regular season games were played. In that time frame,
368 or roughly 16% of the time the final margin was exactly 3
points. The next most frequent occurances were 7, 4, 10 and 6.
The corresponding percentage of time those margins were reached
were 8, 6, 6, and 5% respectively. If you are looking for the
key numbers for totals, he also provides those statistics. The
most frequent final totals over the last 10 years in the NFL
were 37, 41, 30, 45 and 51. The corresponding percentages are
5,4,4,3 and 3% respectively.
As you can see it is very important to know what the key numbers
are, and how often they come into play. If you only have one
"out", then you are at the mercy of the key numbers.
The more sets of lines you are able to obtain, the more often
you can make the key numbers work in your favor.
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