College Basketball: Of No-Names and Schedules by Bryan Leonard Feb 04 2004

Basketball fans love the BIG NAME teams: Duke, Connecticut, North Carolina and Arizona for example. But you’ll notice successful handicappers don’t always give out top plays on the most recognizable schools. That’s because there’s value all over the board when wagering on college hoops, and it’s not always on the marquee teams.

A bookmaker once told me that the Super Bowl line is one of the most difficult to try and beat as a bettor. There are several reasons for this. One is that it is the only football game that week (sometimes two weeks), so it’s easier for linemakers to sift through all the stats and post a very accurate side and total. Another reason is that it’s the biggest game of the season as far as viewers and gamblers and a bookmaker, if he wants to stay in business, had BETTER have a good number on the biggest game of the season.

This is in stark contrast to what happens during the college basketball season. There are dozens of games each day and even up to 70-85 games on a college basketball Saturday. With so many games, it’s much more difficult for linemakers to make accurate numbers on every game. There will be mistakes and soft lines, which are the handicapper's best friend.

Sometimes you may not even recognize the schools or conferences. Last week I released my Southern Conference Game of the Year on Davidson. It was a great spot for a play on the visitors and in my judgment a very bad number. Davidson had a well-balanced team that matched up fairly well with a good Georgia Southern squad. I was looking at a line of about one or two points, but Davidson was an 8.5-point road dog!

This brings into play the importance of examining a team’s schedule carefully. Davidson had a losing record in part because of its tough schedule, playing Texas Tech, North Carolina, Georgetown, Seton Hall and Duke all but one on the road! The stats may have suggested that Davidson gives up a lot of points, but this was deceptive because of this awful schedule.

The game was an easy cover, as Davidson outrebounded Georgia Southern 39-28, trailed by two at the half on the way to a 62-60 defeat, but an easy cover. Davidson might have even won the game if they hadn’t missed nine free throws. Still, my customers and I didn’t need them to win just cover the 8.5-point number.

The moral is: Don’t ignore small, no-name schools and examine schedules carefully. Wins and losses, both straight up and against the spread, are found when you read between the lines

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