February - The Month of the Avenger by Tom Scott Feb 03, 2004

For the purposes of this article the following terms are translated thusly:
SU = Straight Up
ATS = Against the spread
SSR1 = Same season single revenge
RVGMGN = The margin of that earlier loss
DD = Double Digit
BB = Back to Back
TWL = Team Won-Loss percentage
FWL = Opponent's Won-Loss percentage

I've said it many times - Revenge is the most overrated handicapping weapon in the arsenal! To prove my theory, just pick up any basketball newsletter and count the times you see the word "revenge" mentioned. Let's face it. If it were that easy, there wouldn't be any billion-dollar hotels in the middle of a desert. I invite you to tour the world of revenge and learn the correct way to use it. Your host is the Master of Revenge. Me!

This is February, the time of the year when conference teams are making their second pass through the league. As the month goes on, a greater percentage of the games on a single day's card will involve same season revenge. That's why it's so important to understand this concept and to know how to turn revenge into your best friend. I'll start the tour by exploding the myth of revenge and its worth as a handicapping tool when used alone.

I went back to 1990 and looked at all 6,466 college games which the participants were meeting for the second time in the season. The team with SSR1 was 6509-6190-233 against the spread. That's a slight edge but it's not enough to cover the juice. Therefore, if you played all teams with SSR1 since 1990, you would have lost money. You would think, at least I did, that the numbers would improve if you limited your plays to winning avengers. Nope. 1976-1853-85 is still not good enough to cover the vig. I tried using only avengers who were beaten by 10 or more in the first game - same story - a slight edge but not the right edge. I also checked out underdogs, winning underdogs, and winning underdogs who lost the first game by 10 or more and found that all three categories produced records which hovered around the break-even point.

I went through hundreds of different combinations using line values, revenge margins, win percentages, sites, and most recent histories to try to find a revenge angle that would get me at least 67% winners. I mean, two out of three ain't bad. Without boring you to death with a mountain of numbers, let's cut to the chase and reveal the four angles that I found with my laborious research. Using only the conditions noted above, I offer you the four best ways to use the revenge tool.

First, take this combination to the dance. Winning team - Home team - Underdog of +9 or more - RVGMGN at least 10. Here you have a winning home underdog of +9 or more who lost to today's opponent by at least 10 points in the first meeting. Those guys lit up the tote board for 34 wins in just 47 tries since 1990. That angle's worth 72.3% winners and if you want to fine-tune it a little, then just bring the home dog in off a SUATS loss. Now, you have a 16-4 system that you can use about twice a year.

Next, I put this package of parameters together. I reduced the required TWL to .251, eliminated the site as a factor, increased the line to +20 or more, scratched the RVGMGN and brought the opponent in off a SUATS win. That gives you a >.250 underdog of +20 or more against an opponent off a complete success in its last game. That set of parameters produced 49 wins in 77 tries since 1990 making the angle good for 63.6% winners. But I wanted 70%, so I went against only those opponents who had a FWL that was less than .850. Now, you have an angle that is 27-10 and you can use this one three times a year.

The third angle includes this group of conditions. Winning team - Home team - Foe NOT off a loss of 10 or more - Foe off road game - and the home team off a SU win as an underdog. That last condition is a confidence builder that puts our team in the right frame of mind to exact vengeance. The angle says to play on any winning home team who won its last game as an underdog and is playing an opponent who was on the road in his previous game only if that opponent won it or lost it by less than 10. Sounds convoluted but the rationale is sound and the teams that fit all of those parameters went 56-28-2 since 1990. Again, I came up short (66.7%) on my goal and had to add one final condition to get over the 70% mark. That condition was our old standby - RVGMGN at least 10 - and it gave us a 36-13-1 angle, which we can use FOUR times a year. By the way, there is one play on January 31st on the 56-28 portion of the system. It's Drexel against NC Wilmington.

The final angle includes only two specifics. TWL and RVGMGN - All we are asking for here is a .300 or better team who lost by 40 or more in the previous meeting. In fact, we can log a 39-18 ATS mark with just the 40-point revenge factor. The .300 TWL removes eight winners and eight losers from the pile and leaves us with a 31-10 system good for 75.6% winners. Although there are no plays this weekend, there are three already on board in the next couple of weeks. Fordham fits the 39-18 portion in its February 18th date with Saint Joe while San Francisco fits the 31-10 part on February 12th against Gonzaga and Penn State fits the same section on February 21st against Illinois.

Here's a recap of the four SSR1 angles: PLAY ON any winning home dog of +9 or more who lost by 10 or more in the previous meeting. That system is 34-13 for 72.3%. Home teams off a SUATS loss are 16-4.

PLAY ON any .251 or better dog of +20 or more who is playing an opponent off a SUATS win. That system is 49-28 for 63.6%. Teams who are playing opponents with a FWL less than .850 are 27-10.

PLAY ON a winning home team who is off a SU win as an underdog if he is playing an opponent who was on the road in his previous game and did not lose that game by more than nine points. That system is 56-28 for 66.7%. Teams with a RVGMGN of 10 or more are 36-13.

PLAY ON any team who lost by 40 or more in the previous meeting. That system is 39-18 for 63.6%. Teams with a TWL of >300 or better are 31-10.

There you have it. The comprehensive look the world of revenge. I use this type of handicapping every day to make the selections that I post on the guaranteed picks page at this site. That's why I win WAY more than I lose. Check the guaranteed picks page daily for winners from the Master of Revenge.

Good luck to both of us, Tom Scott - Click to view Tom's daily Guaranteed Selections - All on a must win basis