Click Away for Free Picks from the Nations Best   NBA Finals Totals Big Al McMordie June 3, 2004 With the NBA Finals around the corner, let’s take a brief look at the recent history of scoring and totals. Give me a quick answer: Off the top of your head, would you expect to find more Unders or Overs in the Finals? The most obvious answers would be 1) Unders, because defense takes center stage, or 2) About an even number, as linemakers have had several weeks to judge totals all during the playoffs. It’s true that teams bring a more concentrated effort on defense during the playoffs, and even more so in the Finals. The whole world is watching the Finals and it goes to reason that if athletes have worked this hard to get here, they might as well work just as hard for another week or so with a chance to be champs. We’ve certainly seen some sensational defense in this year’s NBA playoffs, most noticeably in the Pistons/Pacers Eastern Conference Finals. Eight of the first nine meetings between those teams this season (playoffs and regular season) went under the total, and they’ve gone under by some frightening (yawn) scores. I expect the tough defense to continue in the Finals, but lately, the correct answer to the question I posed is Number 2; it’s roughly an even number of games in the Finals with respect to Overs and Unders. Linemakers indeed get a long look at these playoff participants and can better judge what the total should be. This even happened in the Pacers/Pistons series, though you might not think so. When Indiana and Detroit played their first game back in October, the total was 179. By games 5 and 6 of the playoff series the total had plummeted to roughly 160 – a decline of 19 points! It’s easy to look back at last year’s Finals between the Spurs and Nets and see that the series went 4-1 under the total. You might think the Under is the obvious way to go, but not so fast: Since 1999, there have been 14 Unders and 12 Overs in the NBA Finals. You can’t get much better balance than that, and balance is what linemaking is all about. So, yes, you will see strong defense when the Finals begin, but don’t get carried away and think that 75% of the games are therefore likely to go under. There’s far more to sports handicapping than that. Carefully examine and weigh each team's strengths, weaknesses, matchups, injuries, and home court variances. You turn a profit in the world of sports wagering by working at it. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.   Join Big Al McMordie daily for his Guaranteed Hoops plays   Owned and operated by Alliance Sports Media  Any information furnished by this site is for information and entertainment only and is not to be used in violation of any federal, state, provincial or local laws - Privacy Policy Contact Servus - Picks2bet.com