Click Away for Free Picks from the Nations Best   College Football Subtleties and Nuances by Big Al McMordie August 27, 2003 The college football season got underway over the weekend. It was a high scoring shootout in the annual Kickoff Classic, with Kansas State topping California, 42-28. It was not only a meeting of teams from different conferences and parts of the country (the Big 12 versus the Pac 10), but a contrast in styles. Kansas State is primarily a running team built around a rough, tough defense that allowed just 10.6 points per game last season! Cal, on the other hand, couldn't be more different. The Golden Bears are a wide-open passing offense behind talented second-year coach Jeff Tedford. Last season Cal averaged 35 points and 247 yards passing per game. This is one of the great things about college football, when different styles of conferences and teams collide. You don't see those kinds of extreme differences meeting in pro football, as every team runs a pro-style offense. But in college football, there is such an enormous variety of styles, with teams that pass most of the time, teams that run most of the time and teams that play a pro-style, balanced offense. When a run-oriented team takes on an all-passing team, for example, this tests one's ability to decipher who has the edge and what the betting line should be. This is part of what makes college football so enjoyable. It also provides handicappers and line-makers with fascinating challenges each week. For example, in that Cal/K-State game, what information do you look at most closely? Do you focus on K-State's great defense, or Cal's ability to strike quickly and put the ball in the end zone? It was clear that the Jayhawks would be able to move the ball on the ground against the Bears' poor defense, but how many points does that translate into? The line-makers made Kansas State a 28-point favorite with a total of 60. The truth is, it's much easier to make NFL numbers than college lines, and that Cal/K-State game is a great example why. First of all, you never have a pro football game where one team is favored by 28 points! The most the expansion Houston Texans were an underdog by last season was 19-points--against the Eagles--(Houston covered in a 35-17 defeat). In fact, the Texans were a double-digit dog in only six of 16 games. Secondly, NFL teams play pretty much the same style of football and the overall talent level is about equal. College football is very different. Look at some of the games this weekend: San Jose State at Florida, Central Florida at Virginia Tech and Central Michigan at Michigan (ouch). There's little doubt who will win those games because of the talent level and the size of the athletic programs. The trick for professional handicappers is to judge and balance many different pieces of information into finding weak betting lines. Some areas to keep a close eye on when gauging these mismatches are home/road play, coaching, offensive/defensive line size, past results against teams with similar styles, and the strengths that a smaller school may have that could allow them to match up against a heavily-favored opponent. For example, No. 1 ranked Oklahoma hosts tiny North Texas this weekend. North Texas likes a conservative, ball-control offense under head coach Darrell Dickey. The Mean Green outscored foes by a 19-14 average last year with a strong defense. In last year's opener, North Texas traveled to mighty Texas and lost 27-0 (but covered as a 34-point dog). Two years ago, North Texas traveled to Oklahoma and lost 37-10, and covered as a 42-point dog. North Texas is unlikely to score much against the powerful Sooners this weekend, but can their tough Defense keep them within the number? Dickey's teams are 9-4 ATS on the road the last two seasons, but you can clearly see that if the Mean Green are going to cover this weekend it will be with defense, because the offense has scored just 10 points combined against the Sooners and Longhorns the last two meetings. Statistics are important for football analysis, whether you're doing it for fun or profit. But stats don't always tell the whole story, and a good example is when teams from different conferences or with different styles of play meet. Another factor in early-season mismatches is the opponent of NEXT WEEK'S game? Do you think Michigan's Lloyd Carr, for example, is going to run up the score and cover the big number if he has to play Penn State or Ohio State the following week? Most likely he'd play the starters for a half and rest players in the second half, which can lead to a backdoor cover by the big dog. So, approach your handicapping analysis a bit different between the colleges and the pros, and be sure to get a grasp on subtleties and different styles of play, which will help you turn soft lines into winning tickets. Al McMordie is 19-2-1 his last 22 Top-Rated College Football plays, as documented by the Sports Monitor. Don't miss any of Big Al's Guaranteed Winners every day, including some Super Situations this Thursday and Saturday in College Football.  Owned and operated by Alliance Sports Media  Any information furnished by this site is for information and entertainment only and is not to be used in violation of any federal, state, provincial or local laws - Privacy Policy Contact Servus - Picks2bet.com