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Strike Up the Band
-- It's Rivalry Time! - Sept 24, 2003
Big
Al McMordie explains how the rivalry factor should be used
in handicapping College Football games
One of the reasons many of us love college football is the
tradition. There's nothing quite like it, not even in the pros.
Schools like Michigan and Notre Dame have been playing football
for over 100 years, and there's an electric atmosphere on game
day at the stadiums when longtime rivals hook up.
This is something to be factored into handicapping, as well. Not
all games are created equal. For example, No. 1 ranked Oklahoma
plays Iowa State this weekend and Texas after that. Now, which
game is more likely to fire up Sooners' fans and players? Which
game is going to bring out "win one for the Gipper"-type
speeches?
It's obvious that an Oklahoma/Iowa State is just another Big 12
game, while the annual Sooners/Longhorns clash is as much a part
of college football's long history as Notre Dame/Michigan,
Florida/Florida State and USC/UCLA.
This doesn't mean that Oklahoma players and coaches will be
looking past Iowa State to Texas, although that is possible and
happens often. You may have heard professional handicappers use
the terms "sandwich game" and "look ahead
spots". This is an example of that -- a team that is a huge
favorite is "looking ahead" to a game against its
hated rival in two weeks, and can be a good go-against depending
on the situation or the team's focus (or lack of focus).
Homecoming is another situation one must include in his
handicapping analysis. Often rivalry games are scheduled on
homecoming, which can mean much larger-than-normal crowds for
the home team. These rivalry spots are beginning to pop up on
the college football schedule, and a smart bettor must think
carefully about them. Sometimes it can be a huge factor.
Speaking of Oklahoma/Texas, the last three years Oklahoma is 3-0
SU/ATS against the Longhorns, winning all three times as a dog.
Bob Stoops out-coached Mack Brown in all those games, including
some trick plays and different defensive formations designed
especially for the game. Smart coaches will often serve up
something special for a rival, or key conference game.
Michigan State and Notre Dame have a long, proud football
tradition and the two schools often face each other. Some of you
may recall the 1966 meeting, when the Irish and Spartans were
unbeaten and ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the country in a clash
dubbed "the game of the century." Notre Dame, a
one-point dog, rallied to tie Michigan State, 10-10 and later
claimed the national title. The point is, when those two teams
meet -- regardless of the records -- it's not just any other
game.
Since 1997, Michigan State is 6-1 SU/ATS against Notre Dame,
winning five times as a dog, including last week. The Spartans
certainly get up to play the Irish. On Saturday I had Michigan
State as a 4* play over Notre Dame, and my clients cashed in
easily as the big underdog Spartans and coach John L. Smith won
straight up, 22-16. Again, make sure you understand such
off-field factors as homecoming and rivalry games, because these
edges can help you get an edge over the book and line-makers!
This looks to be the best weekend of the season yet in both
College and Pro Football, and I will have several huge plays
including a 5* on Saturday, and another on Sunday. I'm 19-3-1 on
my 5* plays in College Football dating back to December 2001, so
don't miss this weekend's games.
Be
sure to check Big Al McMordie's Guaranteed NFL & College
Selections
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