Click Away for Free Picks from the Nations Best   "Make Your Own Numbers." Dec 19, 2003 Big Al McMordie discusses what information to use when making your own numbers when handicapping football games. Line movement is a key aspect of successful sports wagering. Would you rather have a favorite at 2.5 or 3.5? That may be a one-point difference, but in the world of sports betting, it can be an enormous edge. Good handicappers watch line movement and often make plays on soft lines. It's also smart to try and anticipate which way line movement will go, which can give you an edge all during the week on football games, not just on Saturday night/Sunday morning. The basics are simple: understand the differences between the way a team plays at home as opposed to on the road, track injuries, and map out revenge/rivalry spots and match ups. For example, match ups would be if a team has a poor secondary or the defensive backfield is beat up with injuries and they're playing a strong passing offense, there is an edge for the passing team. Depending on the team or the situation, this may mean an extra three or four points on your on point spread, or even more. Home/road is also obvious, and look no further than the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks started this season 7-0 at home where the defense allows 15 points per game, yet on the road they started 1-5 straight up and 1-4-1 against the spread where the defense allowed 27 points per game! This team is a great example of why you can't use overall stats, but need to carefully break them down. The bottom line from all this: make your own numbers. You can do this Sunday morning for next week's games, or do them Monday morning before you've seen the actual Las Vegas lines and odds on upcoming games. Then compare them. You'll find differences and then it's your job to go a step further. For example, ask "Why is my line 5 points off the Vegas line?" Is it something you missed, or a mistake the professional line-makers may have missed? I thought of this last week while watching the Rams/Browns Monday night football game. At the half, the Rams led 23-7, but the score was a bit deceptive as the game was very evenly played. Quarterback Kelly Holcomb gift-wrapped a pair of late interceptions that gave the Rams two quick touchdowns to blow open a 9-7 game. I was watching it with several handicappers and we then made what we thought were good second-half lines. We had the Browns anywhere from a 3.5 to 6-point favorite for the second half. The actual line turned out to be pick 'em. We were all surprised, as our lines were almost a touchdown different than the actual numbers. These are the type of disparities a smart handicapper looks for. It wasn't a surprise for us to see Cleveland outscore the Rams 13-3 in the second half, and we made a better number than the books. Go ahead and make numbers on games, totals and second half lines for both the colleges and the pros. It will sharpen your handicapping skills and help you to find soft lines and good wagering spots. And we all know that soft lines leads to hard cash! Be sure to check Big Al McMordies Guaranteed NFL & College Selections Owned and operated by Alliance Sports Media  Any information furnished by this site is for information and entertainment only and is not to be used in violation of any federal, state, provincial or local laws - Privacy Policy Contact Servus - Picks2bet.com