Click Away for Free Picks from the Nations Best   "Run the football more times, and you win." Bryan Leonard explains how to use rushing as a gauge for handicapping football games Sept 24, 2003 I hear this all the time, on television and on radio. When examining key games, analysts often conclude one team failed to run the football enough times, and the opponent won the game simply because they had more rushing attempts. We heard this a lot after Super Bowl 36. In that game, the two-touchdown favorite Rams saw star running back Marshall Faulk get just two carries, while Patriots running back Antoine Smith carried 18 times in the 20-17 upset. The Pats had 25 rushing attempts, the Rams 22. That’s one game where you can make a case Faulk should have touched the ball more, but let’s get back to the basic argument here: Is winning football, straight up and against the spread, as simple as running the ball more times? The stats suggest this, but I can assure you this is one area where the data lie, or at least gets twisted around to simplify a very complicated subject. For example, when the Rams won the Super Bowl during the 1999 season, they were 11-0 SU/ATS when they had more rushing attempts than their opponent during the regular season. This seems to support the Martz-bashers, but notice that in the playoffs the Rams had fewer rushing attempts than their opponents in all three games. The Vikings held a 29-17 edge in rushing attempts, the Bucs ran more times (23-21) in the NFC championship game, and in the Super Bowl Tennessee had more rushing attempts by a whopping 36-13 margin! Yet, the Rams won all three games, so it’s not as simple as saying, "Run the ball more times and you win." I’ve just finished a statistical analysis on teams rushing the football during the 2002 NFL season. I broke it down into two categories: 1) Teams that rushed the ball 30 or more times and had more attempts than their opponents; 2) Teams that led by 10 or more points at the half and rushed 30 or more times. On the surface, the results are a professional handicappers dream: 30 or more rushing attempts and out-rush the opponent -158-30-1 straight up 66-4-1 straight up -142-40-7 against the spread 64-7 against the spread 10-point lead at the half, 30+ rushing attempts & out-rush opponent -66-4-1 straight up -64-7 against the spread I can hear many of you now: "A 64-7 against the spread record! Wow! I’m going to figure out what team should carry 30 times and bet them every game!" If only it was that simple. How can you predict what team is going to be up by 10 or more at the half? If you could do that, you’d be wiser to just make a first-half wager on those teams. And what team doesn’t end up with more yards rushing after leading by double-digits at the half? Coaches with a big halftime lead aren’t likely to throw the ball a lot in the third quarter – they want to milk the clock and practice ball control. And if a coach is down 20-3 at the half, do you think he’s going to say to his players, "The team that runs the ball more times was 158-30-1 last season, so let’s run the ball every play in the second half and we’ll come back and win." This is absurd. The numbers are being used to support a betting angle after the fact. A successful professional handicapper is able to look forward and predict, not look backward and explain what happened. And there are so many facets to dissecting a football game that it’s foolish to state, "This team would have won if they ran the ball more." The point analysts are making though very badly is that ball control is a great weapon. If a team can run successfully for first down after first down, for example, why would they ever need to pass? Former Ohio State coach Woody Hayes loved the ground game and used to say, "When you pass the football, three things can happen, and two of them are bad." The last five Super Bowl champions, counting playoffs and regular season, are a combined 62-2 SU, 55-9 ATS when having more rushing attempts than their opponent. When having at least 25-rushing attempts a game those eventual Super Bowl champs went 67-6 SU, 61-11-1 ATS. More rushes than opponent 1998 Broncos:16-0 SU, 12-4 ATS 1999 Rams: 11-0 SU, 11-0 ATS 2000 Ravens: 12-1 SU, 11-2 ATS 2001 Patriots: 9-1 SU, 9-1 ATS 2002 Bucs: 14-0 SU, 12-2 ATS 25+ rushing attempts per game 1998 Broncos: 15-1 SU, 12-4 ATS 1999 Rams: 12-1 SU, 12-1 ATS 2000 Ravens: 14-3 SU, 14-3 ATS 2001 Patriots: 12-1 SU, 10-2-1 ATS 2002 Bucs: 14-0 SU, 13-1 ATS Generally speaking, teams that out-rush their opponent are ahead much of the game, and as a result have a greater tendency to end up winning that game (and even covering). Teams with an early lead often don’t want to risk turning the ball over, as well, so they’re more likely to pile up more rushing attempts. But rushing the football a lot is not some magic formula for winning. Look at the last two Super Bowl champions, Tampa Bay and New England. Yes, when they ran the ball more than their opponent, they won. But remember that neither of those teams was strong at running the football (Tampa Bay ranked 27th in rushing in the NFL last year). In the 2002 AFC Championship, the No. 1 rushing team (Pittsburgh) lost to the Patriots 24-17 as a double-digit favorite. In last year’s Super Bowl, the underdog Bucs had more rushing attempts than the Raiders by a whopping 42-11 count. So is that why they won the game 48-21? Of course not. There’s so much more to winning a game SU and ATS than simply piling up rushing attempts. After three weeks this season, teams that out-rush their opponents and run the ball 30 or more times are 34-1 straight up and 34-0-1 against the spread. That lone defeat was when the Cincinnati Bengals had a rushing-attempts edge over the Raiders of 39-20, yet lost the game 23-20. Still, Cincinnati got the cover as a double-digit dog, so teams with good offensive balance and running games can have an edge SU and ATS over a more one-dimensional opponent. Teams such as Kansas City, Denver, the Steelers, Dolphins, Vikings and Colts have started this season with great offensive balance. Opposing defenses aren’t sure whether those teams are going to run or pass, they have such a mixture of strong weapons. And teams that have a ten-point halftime lead and rush for 30+ times in 2003 are a perfect 19-0 SU/ATS. But, again, it’s not as simple as "Running the football more means SU and ATS wins." Game plans, adjustments and strategy all factor into it, and remember that the 1999 Rams had fewer rushing attempts than their opponent in every playoff game, yet still won the Super Bowl. So be careful when you read about betting angles and trends. Because if winning games were as simple as out-rushing the opponent, former Lions coach Marty Mornhinweg would have run the football every play and probably still have a job. Be sure to check Bryan Leonard's Guaranteed NFL & College Selections Owned and operated by Alliance Sports Media  Any information furnished by this site is for information and entertainment only and is not to be used in violation of any federal, state, provincial or local laws - Privacy Policy Contact Servus - Picks2bet.com