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NBA Coaches: Are They Really Important - Bryan Leonard Dec 03 2003

"Anybody can coach the Lakers or the Spurs and win 60 games."

How often have you heard comments similar to that? There is some truth in that, when you compare basketball to other sports. For example, it would be extremely difficult for a great NBA head coach like Red Auerbach or Phil Jackson to take over the Orlando Magic or the Clippers right now and turn them around in time to make the playoffs. And they certainly wouldn’t be able to go deep into the playoffs in basketball you need to have the horses. 

Football is different. Bill Parcels once said that it’s not that difficult a trick to take a 2-14 team and, through discipline and hard work, turn that bunch into an 8-8 or 9-7 team. He’s done it, too, several times. Parcels took consistently losing teams like the Giants, Patriots, Jets and now the Cowboys and turned them into contenders in the blink of an eye. He’s taken two of those franchises to the Super Bowl, took the Jets to the 1999 AFC Championship game, and currently is working his magic again with the Cowboys making a playoff run in just his first season. 

Parcels took a 2-14 Patriots team to the playoffs in just two seasons and had them in the Super Bowl in four years. He then took a 1-15 Jets team and went 9-7 the next year and 13-5 the next before losing to Denver in the AFC title game. Bob Stoops took a floundering Oklahoma program and in just his second season (2000) went undefeated and won college football’s national championship. 

Basketball is different because there are so few players. You have five starters and one or two role players off the bench. If you don’t have some top-notch talent among those few players, even a great coach can’t get them to be an elite team. 

However, coaches can be very significant in basketball in more subtle ways that can help a team and help bettors who are looking for edges against the spread. Jackson was the missing piece a talented Lakers team needed in 1999 and he taught them how to play defense, something that was severely lacking. LA went 56-42-2 against the spread in his first season with the Lakers. Shaq and Kobe were grateful, because they were able to taste champagne instead of disappointment, celebrating the first of three straight titles once Jackson came aboard. 

Contrast that with Shaq’s first coach, Brian Hill, who was in over his head when Orlando made it to the 1995 NBA Finals, but got swept by Houston. Hill was axed a year later, had a brief stint with the Grizzlies before he was fired again and hasn’t come close to seeing an NBA head coaching job since. 

Good coaches can bring such assets as defense, like Jackson and San Antonio’s Gregg Popovich, motivation, or the ability to teach young players subtle fundamentals that lead to winning. Hubie Brown has been a great addition to the young Memphis Grizzlies over the last year, bringing all three components. 

There have been some interesting coaching changes in the NBA this season. Let’s take a look at a few who’ve made significant, subtle, positive changes. 

Pacers:
Dumping Isiah Thomas was the best medicine for this talented club. What stands out about Indiana last year under Thomas was that the Pacers were a great team at home, and a completely different club on the road. Last year the Pacers were 34-10 straight up at home and 26-18 against the spread at home. But on the road, you wouldn’t recognize the underachieving Pacers, as they were 16-28 straight up and 17-26-1 against the number!

New coach Rick Carlisle did a terrific job as an assistant in Indiana under Larry Bird, and then helped to get the Pistons to play strong, team-oriented ball as one of the best teams in the East. It was surprising to see him fired, but it didn’t take him long to land another head coaching job, back with his old haunt Indiana.

After 18 games, the Pacers went 15-3 SU and 13-5 ATS. And notice the breakdown: Indiana was 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS at home and 8-1 SU 7-2 ATS on the road! He has brought that same ability to teach unselfish play and defense, and notice that Indiana has gone 13-5 under the total.

Rockets:
And speaking of defense, have you noticed Houston under new coach Jeff Van Gundy? They play the same stifling defense his teams were known for when he was with the Knicks. Houston is allowing 81 points per game at home (84 ppg overall) and they went under the total in 11 of their first 16 games. The young Rockets still have trouble winning on the road which was a problem last season and it will be interesting to watch if they begin to improve away from home under the new coach.

Grizzlies:
No longer laughing stocks of the NBA, this is a talented, tall and young Memphis team on the rise. They began just 3-3 at home and that included a 105-95 win as a +7 dog over the Lakers. Even more impressive is that they are gaining confidence on the road, starting 5-5 SU and ATS where the offense scores close to 95 points per game.

Yes, coaches can make a difference. When Rick Pitino resigned from the Celtics a few years ago, the team suddenly began winning under Jim O’Brien’s no-nonsense guidance. We’ve also seen teams with good young talent - Orlando and Chicago - recently fire their head coaches because the players were underachieving. Watch carefully how the players respond for their new coach, and look even closer for subtle changes like improved defense and good or bad road play. Identifying tiny subtleties can help you cash some big tickets at the betting window!

 
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