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Basketball Injuries and Subtle Changes - by Big Al McMordie Jan 12, 2004

A good handicapper needs to be flexible. You do all your preseason homework on what to look for, then make adjustments day to day depending on what you see taking place game to game. For example, few expected the surprising Denver Nuggets to come together so quickly, even with number three draft pick Carmelo Anthony. Remember, the player taken before Anthony was Darko Milicic.

Milicic is averaging 0.5 points per game, while Anthony leads the Nuggets with 19 points per game. Think the Pistons would like to go back in time to draft day? Of course, but my point is as a handicapper you need to make adjustments to your stats, power ratings, etc, all the time.

Injuries are also a good example of how teams can be change dramatically. Look at the Phoenix Suns. The Suns began the season with a talented team that got off to a disappointing 8-10 start. But after losing Amare Stoudamire to an injury, the Suns really turned bad, losing six in a row while going 2-10 straight up and 3-9 against the spread. There was more than losing Stoudamire that led to their demise which cost coach Frank Johnson his job, but one change like that contributed quickly to their straight up and ATS decline.

The Wizards played competitive early in the season primarily because of the play of newcomer guard Gilbert Arenas. But their floor general has been in and out of the lineup because of numerous injuries and they've sorely missed his leadership.

It was interesting to see the Lakers stumble as soon as Karl Malone went down with an injury. Los Angeles lost 107-98 at Golden State and lost 99-87 at home on Christmas day to the Rockets as an eight-point favorite. Perhaps the hard-working Malone is the glue that keeps this team together (and keeps them winning). Miami's offense disappeared this weekend when rookie Dwayne Wade went out in a stunning 100-80 home loss to New York. Keep a close eye on the young Wade and if Miami's offense continues to suffer if he's not 100%.

It's not just injuries, either. Sometimes a coach can get canned in the middle of a season and it's important to play close attention to how the team reacts. When Rick Pitino resigned in Boston a few years ago, the Celtics immediately began playing well under the more relaxed Jim O'Brien.

It's easier to track changes such as these in the NBA than in college hoops or football, for example, because there are so many more games. So make sure you gauge your power rankings, compare your lines with actual Vegas/offshore lines, and search for the best available numbers. And be smart and flexible enough to make adjustments even when it pertains to subtle changes each day on the field and in the locker room of individual teams. A smart handicapper looks for both obvious changes and subtle ones.

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