Click Away for Free Picks from the Nations Best Handicapping Mistakes: Part One / Part Two - Bryan Leonard July 2004 Everybody makes mistakes; it’s human nature. It’s also how you learn and get better, be it in school, at work or in social settings. The guy who forgets his wife’s birthday gets a smack on the head or yelled at, which reinforces that it never happens again. Some of us try and take shortcuts, like putting duct tape on something that should be soldered or glued. Then, when that picture or pipe falls apart and smashes to the floor, we learn a lesson: Don’t do that again, dummy. Sports betting is like a minefield, a place that looks so inviting and easy to turn a profit, but fraught with important lessons. Sports wagering is also something you can have fun with and turn a profit over the long haul, something that I’ve found is very possible, as long as you learn what to do and not to do, and there are many "dos" and "don’ts". It takes dedication, a sensible, calm demeanor, careful analysis, experience and hours of work. But make no mistake: a profit can be turned. No one can hit 80% of their selections and make millions of dollars in one season, but sports betting can be an enjoyable and profitable hobby. I’ve written about many things to help sports bettors. With the baseball season around the halfway mark, this is good time to take a look at some of the lessons I’ve learned not to do, and are just as valuable as the things you’re supposed to do. I’m going to spend the next two weeks examining some of the biggest mistakes baseball bettors make. 1. Too Many Favorites: The novice bettor often looks at all the daily numbers and instinctively hones in on the favorites. They think: “The Dodgers are a minus-150 favorite at Milwaukee with Ishii going. LA is more likely to win, so I’ll back them.” Then they build reasons in their head why the favorite will probably win, rather than doing the research to support the play. In the end LA might be the side, but you have to find reasons as to why that side is the play. One way to begin to break this habit is to review yesterday’s games. Notice how many dogs won, more than you probably thought yesterday morning! Remember that even the worst team in baseball that goes 64-98 still wins around 40% of the time. That means the worst team in baseball is going to win four out of every ten games, probably as a good sized dog, too. Naturally, you can get great prices on poor teams. If you bet two-dollar favorites on a regular basis, you need to win two of every three bets just to break even. Shooting for a 66-70 winning percentage is a tough way to try and turn a profit, which is one reason professional handicappers learn how to play the dogs with confidence. 2. Betting Against Streaks: Some bettors think that it’s wise to bet against poor teams that are on a winning streak. There’s no better example as to why this way of thinking doesn’t work than to look at the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Recently they had a stretch wining 12 straight games, many on the road. If you started betting against them after they had won six in a row simply because they were due to lose, then, well, you lost the next six. 3. Overvalue Starting Pitching: Betting lines in baseball are based roughly 90% on the starting pitchers. Remember that in this day and age, most starting pitchers only go 5-6 innings. That’s closer to one-half to two-thirds of the game, which leaves a huge chunk of the contest up to the relief staff. In short, starting pitching doesn’t determine 90% of the outcome of games, though the betting numbers suggest this. Starting pitching is one small piece of a big puzzle, and the smart bettor examines all the pieces. 4. Failure to Analyze Everything: When examining what might happen in a baseball game, some people look at one thing. Maybe they like the New York Yankees powerful offense against a weak opposing pitcher. Or, maybe Astros ace Roger Clemens is 14-4 lifetime against his opponent, so they make Houston a play. This is too simple an approach. You just dig deeper. Maybe Clemens is 14-4 lifetime, which says something about his dominance over one team, but you must look further than that. How is Clemens doing over his last four starts? How is the Houston offense doing this week? Are they slumping? If so, then why? Are two key pieces of the offense limping? Examine the lineup that Clemens will be facing this game. Examine the park. Scrutinize the defensive abilities of both teams. You must analyze many factors and put them together to identify a sound play, not just one piece. Part Two Last week I looked at mistakes that novice handicappers make, because what you don’t do can be just as important as what you do. As in life, there are lost of mistakes to be made and learned. With the baseball season at the halfway point, this is a good time to explain more of the common mistakes bettors can make. Some are simple errors in judgment, but the important thing is to recognize them and not fall into the trap of repeating them. When a baby burns his finger on a hot stove, then that’s a life lesson. The foolish baby will do it again, while the smart kids won’t make the same mistake twice. A good memory is required, as well as careful, analytical thinking. Like a guidebook to smart sports wagering, here are some tips I’ve observed about betting baseball. Teams That Score a Lot of Runs: The average sports bettors are drawn toward teams that score a lot of runs. To them, winning baseball means: Star sluggers! High batting averages! Home runs! Lots of extra base potential! This is how fans think. And fans, on average, don’t make smart bets. This is why sports books always offer bad future numbers on popular teams like the Cubs and Red Sox. The Yankees don’t always offer great betting valuable because of their super talented (and expensive) offensive lineup this season. The Red Sox the last two seasons have had a terrific offense, but examine their record away from Fenway Park. They’ve not been as strong offensively as you might think away from home. The Phillies and Cardinals came into this season with, on paper, strong offenses, but in the first half of the season they've been very disappointing at home, often making a better to go-against than a team to play-on. Failure to Break Down Home and Away Numbers: This is an essential, daily element of sports handicapping. So often you find teams in all sports that are very good at home and poor on the road. In fact, you’ll find that the same team can be two completely different teams; one at home and one away from home. The Colorado Rockies have consistently been like this, but there are many other examples. This season, the Oakland A’s started strong at home (23-11) but just 17-21 on the road. The Rockies have been a .500 home team this season, but started 11-26 on the road! A serious sports bettor keeps up on differences like this and digs deep to uncover the reasons why. Perhaps Oakland’s starting pitching excels in its large home stadium, but the pitchers miss the Oakland Coliseum when on the road? Perhaps the Rockies are more comfortable in Coors Field, while opposing pitchers get the daylights scared out of them? Even individual batting averages can differ remarkably both home and away. Do the homework and find out which hitters and players differ like this. See if it goes back to last season and beyond, then try to identify why. Yes, it takes a lot of work, but you need to if you want to be consistently successful at sports handicapping. Basing Plays on Reputations: Some bettors think like this: “Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson have a closet full of Cy Young hardware, therefore they can’t lose tonight! I’m going to parlay them both.” Reputations are for suckers. I want to know what a pitcher is doing now, meaning the last two weeks and his last five starts. Who cares if a player won the Cy Young last year? That same guy might go 12-12 this season, mostly as a big favorite. Look at the start Roy Halladay, last year’s Cy Young winner, has had with the Blue Jays. He hasn’t been as dominant and then we find out in May that his arm is hurting and he missed a few starts. After Pedro won consecutive Cy Young awards with Boston, the following season he had arm trouble. One year Johnson started 9-10 with the Mariners because he was frustrated he had no contract extension. The only reputation I’m interested in is my own when it comes to picking winners consistently. Don’t swoon over some pitcher that you think is a "can’t miss" because of what he did a year ago. Study how individual player and teams are doing right now! Bryan Leonard in his 17th season as a Professional Handicapper has sent followers to the cash window on a regular basis this season earning them a tidy profit. Get on board with his Guaranteed Selections, remember all selections MUST WIN or there is no charge Owned and operated by Alliance Sports Media  Any information furnished by this site is for information and entertainment only and is not to be used in violation of any federal, state, provincial or local laws - Privacy Policy Contact Servus - Picks2bet.com