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THE TINDER BOX by Tom Scott 5/17/2002


The Tinder Box takes it's name from my football newsletter, and it's steam engine logo. The tinder box on a steam engine was the place where fuel (mostly wood) was kept before it was tossed into the engine's boiler. The material you will read in this column will be YOUR fuel to keep you OUT OF THE BOILER.

ABOUT THE NBA PLAYOFFS
Last year our powerful systems for this event produced their worst performance in twenty years and STILL MADE MONEY. This event is the easiest of all sporting categories to handicap. I have made a ton of dough over the last twenty-five years using only the systems that you will see right here in the following weeks. Many of the games that I use will be available either here or on the Vegas Experts guaranteed picks page. It would behoove you to check the Tinder Box daily for my advice, analysis, and selections. That said, let us move to our next study of the NBA Playoff season.

THIRD ROUND MYTHS - EXPOSED
Everybody has a system to use in the round preceding the championship series. Most of those ideas were spawned by "experts" who really don't have the slightest clue about the true numbers. Here are a few of those myths and the actual results for the 127 third round games played since 1990.
JUST PLAY THE HOME TEAM - Home teams are 86-41 SU but 60-62-5 against the spread.
PLAY ALL THE UNDERDOGS - The puppies are 66-56-5 vs the number, a barely profitable 55%.
PLAY THE LOSER OF THE PREVIOUS GAME - Those guys are 51-49-5 vs the money.
PLAY AGAINST ANY DOUBLE DIGIT WINNER OF THE PREVIOUS GAME - That's 36-30 for 54.5%.
PLAY ANY HOME TEAM OFF A LOSS - This "system" actually loses at 25-28 against the spread.
PLAY AGAINST ANY ROAD TEAM OFF A WIN - Another loser at 39-36 ATS.

If you want something that actually works (who doesn't?) in this round, look for this situation:
Find any game in which the margin of victory in the previous game was more than 10 points. Make sure that the posted total for this game is higher than 177. PLAY THE UNDER.

That simple angle is 29-11 in this round since 1990

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