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THE TINDER BOX by Tom Scott
4/30/2002
The Tinder Box takes it's name from the Steam
Sheet, my football/basketball newsletter, and it's steam engine logo. The
tinder box on a steam engine was the place where fuel (mostly wood) was
kept before it was tossed into the engine's boiler. The material you will
read in this column will be YOUR fuel to keep you OUT OF THE BOILER. Keep
in mind that those guaranteed selections are the best we have to offer.
ABOUT THE NBA PLAYOFFS
Last year our powerful systems for this event produced their worst performance in twenty years and STILL MADE MONEY. This event is the easiest of all sporting categories to handicap. I have made a ton of dough over the last twenty-five years using only the systems that you will see right here in the following weeks. Many of the games that I use on my own late phone service will be available either here or on the
guaranteed picks
page. It would behoove you to check the Tinder Box daily for my advice, analysis, and selections. That said, let us move to our next study of the NBA Playoff season.
THE ONE POINT PLAYOFF LOSS - HOW DO TEAMS HANDLE IT
In the four sports we cover thoroughly (College and Pro football and college and pro basketball) a one point loss usually brings some kind of situational angle to the fore in the next game. We have more than 15 angles involving one point games in those four sports and we applied each and every one of them to tonight's New Jersey - Indiana game to find the
one(s) that fit. Surprisingly, we found that NONE of them fit this particular contest. HOWEVER, (there always seems to be a "However" in the stuff I write, doesn't there?), as we have often said, sometimes when you're fishing for salmon, you catch a trout.. That's exactly what happened here.
We looked at all playoff teams who suffered a one point playoff loss in their last game. They were 14-15 SU and 15-14 against the spread. But, if you think of the mental status of that one point loser, the find we made makes a lot of sense. You just lost an important game by one point. A free throw made or an opponent's free throw missed would have sent the game into overtime or a basket made, a turnover not made, a foul not called, and any number of other things could have given you the win. You vow, in your next opportunity, to make that extra play, take that extra shot, try harder for that steal, and grab that one elusive rebound. That kind of thinking leads to more points and is the reason that this angle works.
Our angle is this: Play the OVER in any NBA Playoff game in which one of the participants lost it's previous playoff game by one point. This situation has happened 26 times since 1990 and the OVER has come in 19 of those times. That's a 73.1% system
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